Why a ‘punitive’ youth focus in the Budget makes Māori uneasy

On the subject of young people, there was a palpable sense of unease, sometimes anger, from Stuff’s Pou Tiaki panellists about Budget 2025 spending, if not its general vibe.

The panel’s expert voices came from diverse communities sharing their immediate thoughts on what Budget 2025 meant for them.

Unsurprisingly the $12.8 billion savings from the Government’s pre-Budget law change nixing 33 pay equity claims for women, stuck in the panel’s craw. (Some claims will likely be refiled.)

But if there was a topic that all the panellists raised unbidden on the day, it was the Government’s approach to young people.

Professor Matt Roskruge, Māori economics expert, speaking immediately after the Budget lock-up, settled on “punitive” when looking for the right words for the theme.

Or, he said, what could be described as the “policing of youth”.

• There was a $140m package over four years to reduce truancy.

• There was $33m targeting youth offenders over four years for boot camps, and $33m for upgrades to youth justice residences.

• There will be eligibility limits for 18 and 19-year olds to get some benefits depending on their parents’ income (details to be worked out).

Panellist Aaron Hendry, Kickback general manager and youth development worker, said the Government had made a “clear choice to invest in imprisoning children rather than housing them”.

We should, he said, put military academy-type spending into preventing kids from entering the justice system - not punish them “after we’ve failed them”.

"We've lost everywhere in this Budget'

Mistrust of the system, especially the justice system, especially for Māori, especially for young Māori, and especially as a theme of a Budget, can be explained statistically. Policies - punitive or otherwise - directed at younger people will have a bigger impact on Māori. Māori as a people are simply younger than almost everyone else. The median Māori age is 28 for women and 26 for men - compared to 39 and 37 for the overall population.

‘A major disability and equity issue’

Structurally, this means 55% of Māori are aged under 30 - compared to 36% of Pākehā. Only about 7% of the Māori population is over 65, compared to 20% of Pākehā.

So the Māori population skews young - while the Pākehā population skews older.

Statistics also show that ‘punitivity’ rolls downhill. Māori are massively over-represented in the criminal justice system. They are about 17% of the overall population but make up more than half of those in prisons.

Youth-focused policy and spending has reverberations for Māori, for better or worse.

Statistical becomes the personal

Panellist Māhera Maihi, chief executive of Mā te Huruhuru, whose work includes a kaupapa-Māori housing complex for youth, would add another Budget line to the punitive-for-youth column: A $480m boost over four years for front-line policing.

Police interactions with young people, something as simple as being pulled over for having no licence, can be a gateway into the criminal system, she said.

Mistrust of the system, especially the justice system, especially for Māori, especially for young Māori, and especially as a theme of a Budget, can also be explained personally.

“I have lived experience being in care when I was younger. I come from gang families. I have been homeless with my family when I was younger. So for all of these reasons, I really have a different drive in the pit of my puku to make sure there is justice, there is equity for our people,” Maihi said.

What does it mean, politically?

That is not to say that finance, and social investment minister Nicola Willis’ Budget didn’t have potentially fruitful approaches to fixing social need.

The $190m social investment fund announced ahead of Budget Day comes with the promise of smarter contracting, selection and monitoring of social services.

The fund would grow, “setting up the infrastructure for large scale delivery of integrated contracts”, Willis said. The Government will also extend its KiwiSaver contributions to 16- and 17-year olds from July this year.

But such announcements aside, dealing to perceived youthful failings - truancy, crime, laziness and free-loading - is likely not a political loser for National.

Amid the clamour and the noise and the pay-equity pummelling of Budget Day, it appears that’s a vibe the Government can live with.